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9/18/2024
WT Staff
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September 18, 2024 132 pm PDT
Revisiting NOAA Storm Forecast 2024
A quiet weather day, according to the National Weather Service, no hazardous weather outlooks in effect for New York. In a moment of weather calm, we check in with the National Hurricane Center to see what may be brewing off shore.
Tropical Depression Gordon away off in the Atlantic no longer has a trackable center, formerly Tropical Storm disintegrating to an unorganized group of unsettled weather moving north-northeast and 3.5 mph. Gordon presents no risk to land, though conditions into the weekend could yet bring Gordon back to Tropical Storm status. By midweek, the National Hurricane Center reports no risk to land.
Not to be caught off-guard, the named storms are not the only ones to watch. An unnamed storm, "Potential Tropical Storm Eight" managed to deliver twenty-plus inches of rain on North Carolina Monday, trapping dozens of people and causing enormous flooding damage. By any name, a storm is a storm, localized heavy rain can produce flash flooding.
From the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) storm season projection article of May 23, 2024, NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, 85% probability of above average storm season with 17 to 25 named storms, 4 to 7 of these being hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. Here we are, just past the midpoint of storm season 2024, we are tracking the 7th named storm, Gordon, still on the radar active in the Atlantic. The latter half of the season is expected to bring on the heavy storm activity. FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks says, "Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today. Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow."
Above seasonal normal flows in north coast, much above normal central coast and San Diego watersheds
Streamflow Situation from the USGS network of streamflow gauges in California
Above normal to high water levels predominate the state streamflow map, coastal and interior flows through all the watersheds down to the south Colorado River watershed. First percentile low flows continue in Colorado River watershed, New and Alamo Rivers still running at record lows. Severe hydrologic drought conditions continue in Imperial and Riverside Counties midweek. Central San Bernardino County remains at moderate drought.
See the brown tags on the map to the right for low flow levels in the 1st percentile range, some of the lowest levels recorded on this date in eighty-one years of monitoring near Westmoreland, more than sixty years monitoring on the Alamo River. No extreme high flows or flood events are recorded in the monitoring network as of this report.
Low flows increase the stress in water bodies as the temperature increases. Any toxic spills reaching water will be more harmful with a lower water level, or slower moving water. Algal growth is accelerated in the lower flow, higher water temperatures. All algal blooms whether cyanobacteria or otherwise have the effect of lowering dissolved oxygen, jeopardizing aquatic life.
WT HAB Tracker from the satellite monitoring program of the NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science(NCCOS), Cyanobacteria Assessment Network (CyAN) and State sources where available
California
California Water Boards Recent HAB Update of Friday, Sept 13 carries DANGER advisories on six recreational water bodies, including Lago Los Osos, Contra Loma Reservoir, Lake Anza, Big Break Regional Shoreline, Discovery Bay and Clear Lake. Four Warning-level advisories are posted for Discovery Bay, Clear Lake and San Luis Reservoir with fifteen caution advisories posted on California beaches.
Be sure to heed the specific safety measures to avoid inhaling, ingesting or absorbing cyanotoxins, see the bluegreen tags on the map to the right for the water bodies impacted.
No discussion of HABs is complete without follow-up testing for cyanotoxins. The presence of bluegreen algae does not guarantee the presence of cyanotoxins, this can only be established through analysis of the water samples. As laboratory water testing is costly and time consuming, local health authorities rely on observation of HABs, including the assistance of Cyanobacteria Assessment Network (CyAN) to estimate concentration in order to decide when and where testing will be done. Given exposure to cyanotoxins above a maximum concentration is associated with permanent damage to vital organs in humans, the signs of which may not be felt until damage is done, it is prudent for local public health authorities to take a cautious approach when the toxicity status of a water body is unknown.
Big Valley Pomo Environmental Protection Agency has been leading the program of water monitoring for Clear Lake for more than a decade, including sampling and testing for cyanotoxins. Find the latest toxicity test results for Clear Lake here.
Check out the latest California HAB Tracker report, here, and see the bluegreen tags on the map to the right for more information.
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