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9/25/2024

WT Staff

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September 25, 2024 updated 1250 pm PDT

HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 9A: National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2 pm EDT Sept 25:

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 86.4 West. Helene is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today through Thursday, bringing the center of Helene across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and to the Florida Big Bend coast by Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to slow down and turn toward the northwest over the southeastern United States Friday and Saturday.
HELENE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY

LOCATION...22.0N 86.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:
  • Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
  • Tampa Bay
  • Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
  • Anclote River to Mexico Beach
  • Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel
  • A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:
    • West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
    • Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
    • Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
    • Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
    • Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
    • West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
    • Flamingo northward to South Santee River
    • Lake Okeechobee
    • Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
    • Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
    • North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone on the web, here

    STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.

    Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...8-12 ft
    Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
    Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-9 ft
    Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
    Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
    Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
    Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
    Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

    For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, here.

    WIND: WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in southern Florida later today and will spread northward across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in South Carolina beginning on Thursday.

    Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the hurricane warning area in Mexico during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in Cuba, and hurricane conditions are possible for the western portion of Cuba today.

    RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. A 24-hour rainfall total of 8.60 inches (218.4 mm) was recently reported in Embalse Herradura, Pinar del Rio, Cuba, by the Meteorological Service of Cuba.

    Over the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals around 15 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding. Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Helene, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, here.

    See the Flash Flood Risk graphic, here.

    TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of the Florida Peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding northward across Florida into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

    SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

    NEXT ADVISORY Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

    Forecaster Berg.









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